Last year, a McKinsey survey found that 50% of employers with a “high awareness of (health) reform” would “definitely or probably” stop offering employer-sponsored insurance in 2014. A majority of those “dumped” employees who qualify for the exchange subsidy would probably find a better deal, but what impact will those people have on the deficit? The Congressional Budget Office modeled a scenario where employers dumped 14 million more people onto the exchanges and found it reduced the deficit by $13 billion from 2012-2022. How so? The generated tax revenue from people insured through exchanges who can no longer take advantage of the tax deduction for employer-sponsored health insurance. However, the CBO assumed that employers who dump health coverage would replace it with increased cash wages – dollar for dollar. It could mean much lower tax revenues if employers don’t decide to match.
If Employers Stop Paying Health Care, Who Wins? (Maybe, Everyone) (The Atlantic)
By Staff Writer
March 19, 2012 • Reprints
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